Japan’s Nuclear Policy

Nixon Center
May 19, 2009
Ichiro Fujisaki

 


Policies inherently are bound to change.  It is because strategic environments change.
You constantly need to review policies so that they meet current needs.  In this regard, the basic nuclear policies of Japan have been a rare species that have been kept quite intact.


This is because the three premises or preconditions remain unchanged, i.e. history, the geo-political situation, and natural resources.  Historical experiences have made Japan into the number one advocate against nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation.  The geo-political situation required us to be dependent on US nuclear deterrence.  Lack of natural resources led Japan to be dependent on nuclear energy.  Let us look at the first two elements together.


Non-Nuclear Posture, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Deterrence


Japan is the only country in the world that has experienced nuclear devastation.  We strongly feel that such a thing should not have happened and should not be repeated.  There still exist victims suffering from the aftereffects.  Hence, PM Sato proclaimed in 1967 three non-nuclear principles.  They were “not possessing nuclear weapons, not producing nuclear weapons, and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japan.”  The Diet has confirmed these principles as national policy in the form of resolutions.  A wide majority of people have been supportive of this policy. 


Japan thus joined IAEA in 1957 and ratified NPT in 1976.  Japan has been the proposer of a UNGA resolution for the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons since 1994.  The US supported 6 times, abstained once, and objected 8 times.  We ardently hope we will get support this year.  Japan was very happy with President Obama’s statement on April 5 in Prague.
He stated for the first time that “as a nuclear power—as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon—the United States has a moral responsibility to act…. So today, I state clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”


Moved by this statement, PM Aso at once wrote a congratulatory note to the President.
I met the mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki earlier this month, and both of them were very much touched.  In addition, it is very important for Japan to curb and prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and related materials and technologies.  We fully support the international efforts for implementing export control and relevant UN Security Council Resolutions, including those concerning North Korea and Iran, as well as promoting the Proliferation Security Initiative.


The second element, nuclear deterrence, is closely related to the first element.  As stated, Japan has decided not to possess nuclear weapons.  But we cannot neglect the fact that we are very close to nuclear-armed countries such as Russia and China.  Three years ago, North Korea conducted a nuclear explosion as well.  As the Japanese constitution allows Japan to possess only the minimal necessary forces for its self-defense, Japan decided to establish an alliance with the US and to depend upon the latter’s deterrence.  This is called extended deterrence.
This includes nuclear deterrence as well.


Thus while seeking for the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons, in view of the fact that nuclear powers exist, Japan is relying on US nuclear deterrence for its security.  President Obama also stated in Prague that “as long as these [nuclear] weapons exist, we will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies.”  This was vitally important.


What Can We Do for Nuclear Disarmament


As I stated, we are encouraged by President Obama’s speech.  We think we can work together.
I believe there are some guidelines to bear in mind regarding nuclear disarmament negotiations.
These are Ambition, Balance, Continuity, Disclosure, Exception-free, and Fairness.  They do not need much elaboration, but let me briefly touch upon them.  Ambition should be the first guiding principle.  More often than not, the biggest enemy to dynamic policy change or vision is the idée fixe of experts.  You are often told that any new plan may benefit others more.
But contrary to many experts’ views, the USSR has collapsed and the Berlin wall came down.
Things do change.  We should not hasten to label the total elimination of nuclear weapons as unrealistic. 


Balance is crucial.  Any deal made should not negatively affect your or your allies’ security.
You should not give an advantage to those third parties who are not participating in the deal as well.  China and others should not take advantage of the US-Russia arms control deal.
The equilibrium that exists should not be undermined.


Continuity seems like a truism but is not easy when it comes to changes in administrations.
However, although the tactics may differ, it is desirable to obtain a general bipartisan consensus on long-term objectives.


Disclosure is indispensable.
Because confidence-building is the prerequisite of arms control, and without transparency, it is not possible to foster confidence.
We are not content with the degree of transparency of the Chinese military, including its nuclear capability.


Exception-free is key.
If we accept any exception, there surely will be many followers.
This is exactly why we have to have Iran and North Korea follow international rules and discipline.


Fairness is vitally important.
Fairness between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ of nuclear weapons.  Fairness between those who have joined and who have not joined the NPT.  Non-member countries should not enjoy the same rights as member countries.  All of these have to be sought for the credibility of the system and negotiations. 


You may call the above the ABCDEF of nuclear disarmament.


I appreciate the result of the NPT Preparatory Committee last week in NY.  Hoping to bring the 2010 NPT Review Conference to a successful and balanced conclusion, Foreign Minister Nakasone has proposed 11 concrete benchmarks for measuring the conditions necessary for a nuclear free world.  I think these benchmarks could be rationalized from the ABCDEF mentioned above.   I will quickly tell you what they were.
He calls for the following:


  • Leadership of and cooperation between the US and Russia

  He supported negotiations for a successor treaty to START I.
We would like to see ambitious initiatives.


  • Nuclear disarmament by China and other states                      

    He called for reducing and freezing the development of nuclear weapons including arsenals.
These are necessary to promote US-Russia negotiations.


  • Transparency over nuclear arsenals

    He proposed a “culture of information disclosure.”


  • Irreversible nuclear disarmament

    He insisted that measures taken should ensure irreversibility.


  • Study on future verification

    Without accurate verification, credibility cannot be maintained.
6. Early ratification of CTBT
He welcomed the US’s positive stance.


  • Immediate commencement of the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty
  • Restriction on ballistic missiles

     He supported globalization of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the treaty to ban short and intermediate-range ground to ground missiles.


  • International cooperation for civil nuclear energy

     He stressed the importance of the 3 S’s (safeguards, nuclear safety, and nuclear security) as a common international understanding.
10. Enhancing IAEA safeguards
He advocated the universalization of the NPT Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and the Model Additional Protocol.


  • Prevention of nuclear terrorism                           

  He supported President Obama’s proposal to convene a “Global Summit on Nuclear Security.”
He also stated that Japan is planning to host the “2010 Nuclear Disarmament Conference” early next year.


We look forward to working closely with the US for a successful NPT Review Conference next year.


Nuclear Energy


The third condition defining Japan’s nuclear policies is a lack of natural resources.  Japan is almost entirely dependent on foreign sources for energy.  If we look at the major countries, energy self-sufficiency rates are 4% for Japan, 61% for the US, 78% for the UK, 27% for Germany, and 7% for France.  Japan has almost no oil or gas fields.  Two consecutive oil shocks dealt a big blow to the Japanese economy.  Thus Japan has chosen nuclear as an important source for its energy.  In 2006, Japan ranked in the number two group among major countries for its share of nuclear energy in electricity.  As a matter of fact, it was a remote second.  France 79%, Japan 28%, Germany 27%, US and UK both 19%, Russia and Canada 16%.  As for the number of power plants, the order is different but nonetheless we are among the top 3 in the world.  The order is the US (104), France (59), Japan (53), Russia (27), South Korea (20), and Germany (17).


Nuclear power development has gone through four seasons. 
After Three Miles or Chernobyl, it was winter.  
Now we are seeing spring.  Some people call it the “Nuclear Renaissance.”
Three reasons.  First, the soaring need for energy from developing countries, including emerging countries such as China and India.  IEA has predicted that the energy need may increase by 45% by the year 2030.  Second, environmental concerns.  It is predicted that the average temperature may go up by 2.4 degrees to 6.4 degrees by the end of the 21st century compared to 1990.  In view of global warming, we need CO2-free power generation.  Of course, solar, wind, geo-thermal, and other alternative energy sources are increasingly important.  Having said that, in view of the sheer volume required, it is evident that nuclear power generation does and will play a key role.  Three, because petroleum prices proved to be too volatile last year.


You cannot place your economy solely on a source which can go up four times and come down in only 12 months time.  This is the time to check carefully if we are well prepared to go into the hot season of summer for nuclear energy.  There are 436 plants today, and 157 are either planned or under construction.  On top of these, 276 more are being discussed.
Out of these future 400+ plants, 125 are in China, 44 in Russia, and 31 in India.


We need to secure the above mentioned 3 S’s for these upcoming power plants. Japan and the US can be complimentary in this regard.  In the last 30 years, the US has built no nuclear power plants in the country.  Japan has been continuously building nuclear power plants, totaling 31 during this period.  The US has experience deploying abroad which Japan does not have.  Japanese strengths include:


  • components production ability
  • experience of plant construction

US strengths include:


  • international marketing ability
  • national laboratory
  • potentially big domestic market

Some Japanese nuclear power plant companies have cooperative relations with American companies.  It is expected that Japanese companies and American companies can jointly explore these new markets.  The 3 S’s have to be secured on a global level.  The milestone document of IAEA is a good example of such efforts.  Japan has also contributed to IAEA by assisting IAEA in sending experts for those countries planning to introduce nuclear power generation. 


The experts are intended to assist the 3 S’s, train people, and prepare legal framework.
In this regard, civil nuclear cooperation with India should not undermine the international system and weaken our non-proliferation system.  We request India for its early participation in the NPT as a non-nuclear nation and for the early signing and ratification of CTBT.


Lastly, let me touch upon our policy regarding nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear waste management.  Japan enriches uranium, uses it, and recycles it to utilize maximum use of uranium and plutonium resources.  Japan has been engaging in uranium enrichment and reprocessing.  The latter is in order to maximize the use of these scarce resources.  After decades of R&D, a commercial enrichment plant is operating, and a commercial reprocessing plant is being constructed (both at Rokkasho-mura, Aomori). 


We also engage in developing fast reactors, which can significantly expand the use of uranium resources, by producing more fuel than spending. (i.e., we may be able to extend the usage lifetime of uranium resources to the order of a few thousand years)  Japan and the US can further work together on research and development in the field of advanced fuel cycle technology which contributes to a proliferation resistant fuel cycle.  Minister Nikai and Secretary Chu agreed on this on May 4 of this year.


Lastly, let me touch upon nuclear waste management.  In the past, some of Japan’s spent fuel has been sent to Europe (France and the UK) to be recycled, and recovered materials would be used as MOX fuel (Mixed Oxide) at commercial nuclear power plants in Japan.  We expect that we will soon see the first loading of the MOX fuel fabricated in Europe as the shipment of the MOX fuel has arrived at a Japanese port this week.  Other spent fuels are to be recycled and currently are stored mainly in power plants in Japan.  The residual of the recycling will be disposed of geologically.  In all such activities, Japan has been cooperating closely with the IAEA and has undergone detailed inspection and surveillance.


Concluding Remarks


As stated above, the present is a watershed period in both nuclear disarmament and proliferation as well as nuclear power generation.  These are areas where no failure is permissible.  The US and Japan are in unique positions.  They both have contributed in a different manner.  We can anticipate more coordination and cooperation between the two.  We in Japan look forward to working with the US.