First of all, I wish to thank to Asia Society and JICC for this splendid opportunity. It is a great pleasure to talk to distinguished guests together with Mr. Bush, who is an eminent researcher on East Asian security affairs of the Brookings Institute.
I am working now in the Embassy, but I could have spent a sabbatical year in Brookings. If it were to be the case, Mr. Bush would have certainly been my mentor. I feel like having an entrance exam for Brookings.
Today, I wish to share with you Japan’s perspective on East Asian security affairs and its strategy. What I am going to say is sometimes personal and not necessarily reflects my government’s view in its details.
I would talk first about evolution of East Asian security environment, and then touch on Japan ’s national interests and security strategy, and finally explain challenges and opportunities in the new era and Japan ’s responses to them.
1. East Asian security environment
In the first place, let me give you my bird view of the evolution of East Asian security environment. East Asia is now facing again a major change of its strategic topography since the beginning of its modern history. Let me divide the 20th century into five parts for convenience of explanation.
(1) The first period is from late 19th century to very early 20th century. Industrial revolution gave European nations and the United States overwhelming national power. Combination of steam and then combustion engines with coal and then petroleum changed the world. East Asia was lagging behind the industrialization. Even China was not yet a power point, especially after the Sino-Japanese war.
In North East Asia, Czarist Russia rapidly intruded in the region. They acquired huge portion of its territory north to China by mid 19th century. They came down further to the south and met Japanese in Karafuto Island. This Russian move prompted the British to form an alliance with the Japanese. Russo-Japanese war broke out. It was a difficult war. American President Roosevelt intervened to end the Russo-Japanese war in Japan’s advantage. Czarist Russia collapsed after the war in the radical communist revolution. Korea was annexed to Japan.
(2) The second is from 1910s to the Pacific War. During this period, international politics turned its tide. Human Reason started to overcome centuries-long cruel shear power struggle. The League of Nations and International Court of Justice were created. Humanitarian Law started to develop. Disarmament negotiations started. Anti-colonial sentiment began to be fermented all over the world.
By 1920s, Japanese Imperial ambition for a large part of the Chinese continent beyond the Korean peninsula (and Manchuria ) became a strong irritant to the United States. The British saw a lesser danger in the revolutionary Soviet regime and saw a greater one in uprising Germany. Thus the Anglo-Japanese Alliance became less critical for the British. The alliance was dissolved under American pressure.
But the United States after President Wilson returned to its previous isolationist stance. The First World War raged the entire Europe . No power could focus on Far East. Japan’s military forces came to feel virtually unbound in the region. Japanese expansionism into the continent was fully geared in 1930s.
(3) The third is from 1945 to 1960s. Japan, after defeat in the Pacific War, ceased to be a power point of its own. The Soviet block, gathering the Soviets, Chinese and North Koreans, faced defiantly the United States. The Americans assumed the security of newly independent Philippines and that of the vast area found in the map of the dismantled Japanese Empire, namely Japan itself, Republic of Korea and Taiwan.
At the dawn of the Cold War, North Korea invaded the South in 1950. The Chinese joined the war later. The invasion was frustrated only by robust American efforts and other UN members’ intervention.
Another important aspect of this time is decolonization of Asia, alongside with the global trend for decolonization. Korea from Japan, Indonesia from the Dutch, India, Pakistan, Singapore, Malaysia and others from Great Britain. In Vietnam, decolonization from France culminated into Vietnam War.
(4) The fourth is from 1970s to the end of the Cold War. In early 1970s, the Sino-Soviet split became apparent to everyone. The United States and then Japan normalized their relationship with mainland China. Taiwan slipped into a position of a renegade island whose existence was guaranteed only by American objection to forcible integration of Taiwan into mainland China. The rapprochement of China and the United States and then Japan would be the biggest change of strategic picture in Far East after the demise of the Japanese Empire and the beginning of the Cold War.
(5) The fifth is after the end of the Cold War till the present. Now we are witnessing another crust-moving strategic change in the region.
The Soviet Union collapsed. A new Russia has become a democracy. It still retains huge military forces, but its economy is now smaller than major nations in East Asia. It is struggling through reforms for more stability and prosperity.
China has become a growing power with its rapidly expanding economy, with the same political system and with quickly modernizing military forces. We expect them to be a responsible and friendly nation and we firmly stay the course of the engagement policy together with Americans and other industrial democracies.
India is emerging over the horizon as a power point, and it is the largest democracy in terms of population. It is riding on the web of information society. It is a nuclear power now, but only outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Japan resurrected in terms of economy. Japan now modestly but proactively expands its political role and broadens the role of its military forces for international causes.
The United States stands ever higher in the region as an ultra-superpower, an enhancer of democracy and free trade as well as an guarantor of peace and stability in the West Pacific.
A spectacular phenomenon in the region as a whole is its economic development and its integration. The trade inside the region advances dramatically, and its economic integration is pushed further by globalization.
Another not-spectacular but deeply cutting and more important trend across the region is that democracy is taking roots in East Asia. Taiwan and Republic of Korea have become true democracies. Philippines and Thailand are also true democracies. Islamic nations like Indonesia and Malaysia are turning into democracies now. Indonesia is the largest Muslim democracy on the planet. Internet and cellular phones have become instruments to enhance the freedom of speech.
The trends are fragile but clearly and steadily headed for brighter future. People in this town talk a lot about the Greater Middle East Concept, but I would say that Asia is much closer to achieve transparent, tolerant, stable and prosperous community sharing the same universal values with Americans.
2. Japan’s National Interests
Now let me talk about Japan’s national interests. Japan is a populous island nation in the Western rim of the Pacific Ocean. It counted 34 millions in Meiji era, 120 millions now. It is dwarfed by India and China, but still the ninth biggest population in the world. And they are aging. There are less and less children.
The land is narrow and mountainous with many volcanoes. But it is a long nation. If you drag Japan on the map eastward, Japan’s main islands covers roughly The US West coast. Its coast line is one of the longest and its maritime zone is one of the biggest on earth. Its commercial fleet is also one of the biggest on the planet only after the Greeks.
Its natural resources are limited. In particular, it definitely lacks enough fossil fuels such as petroleum. Nonetheless, its industries are vigorous and energetic. Japan keeps a high technological edge. Japan’s national economy produces every year half of the wealth that Americans produce.
Japan came back after the war to its democratic tradition and anchored firmly there. The Japanese Parliament, National Diet, dates back to late nineteenth century. It is one of the oldest democracies in Asia.
This is Japan. Japan has evolved and is still evolving. But basic features of the nation are invariable.
For Japan to enjoy peace and prosperity in the future, it needs to achieve the following strategic goals:
a) global stability, in particular stability or balance of power in East Asia, with a clear sense of progress of history towards freedom and democracy.
b) multilateral, open and free market system on the global scale to enhance globalization as well as regional economic integration,
c) open sea lanes of communications, in particular from the Gulf Area to East Asia,
d) stability of the Gulf Area and steady flow of oil from there to East Asia as well as to the world market
e) steady advancement of democracy and elevation of the level of respect in regards with human rights, and no backlash towards extreme, dark anti-modernity emotions in the region or elsewhere.
3. Japan’s Grand Strategy
Now let me turn my eye to Japan’s grand strategy. Since the entry of Japan to modern states’ club in the late 19th century, Japan tried to follow the European expansionist path. In a word, it wanted an empire to sustain a self-sufficient economic zone for its survival. But Japan ’s ambition for the continent was frustrated by its defeat in the Pacific War and ended with the dismantlement of its Empire.
Paradoxically Japan has achieved fully its strategic goals after the Pacific war. When the Cold War began, Russians, who once joined the Allies in the World War II, stood this time against Anglo-American supremacy in stead of the Japanese and the Germans. Defeated Japan joined the Free Nations by San Francisco Peace Treaty. Japan entered into a security arrangement with the United States at the same time. Japan has chosen the side of the Free Nations. This opened the path for a new prosperity that no Japanese dreamt of before 1945.
For example:
a) Japan joined the GATT, today’s WTO, OECD and benefited greatly from the multilateral free trade system.
b) Oil constantly continued to flow from the Gulf region to gear Japanese economy up, with brief disruptions in two oil crises in 1970s.
c) The security of sea lanes have never been challenged by any other sea powers thanks to the US navies.
d) Stability was guaranteed by the Alliances among the Free Nations.
- On a global scale, balance and nuclear parity were achieved between Eastern and Western blocs.
- In North East Asia, the United States stood to bear the burden of security vis-a-vis the communist military colossi like the Soviets, Chinese and North Koreans, and maintained stability in the region, protecting successfully Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Philippines.
Fifty years past since Japan joined the Free Nations. Japan is no longer a challenger by force to the status quo as in 1930s. Rather it is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the existing strategic and economic frameworks of the region. These frameworks for stability and prosperity are by no means products of the natural world. They are crystallizations of sweats of powers who have created them and sustained them.
We owe this largely to the United States.
Free trade is culmination of American Open Door Policy since 19th century.
Stability of the region is sustained by the US Alliances in the region with Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore.
Denial of illegal use of force in the United Nations Charter could have been built only upon Kellog-Brian Pact and Wilson's League of Nations.
And today’s spread of democracy in the region is nothing but the result of tireless and colossi efforts by the United States to be a beacon of democracy world wide. It is only the Americans among the Western powers who shed blood of tens of thousands of nationals for the cause of Freedom in the region.
Japan's grand strategy and vital interests consists in maintaining today’s strategic stability and economic prosperity of the entire region. Japan can not do it alone. Maybe no nation could do it alone. And it is naturally that the Japan-US Alliance, the alliance of the two biggest industrial democracies in the Asia-Pacific region, is and will be the best vehicle to achieve this daunting goal.
We need other industrial democracies like Korea and Australia to cooperate with us.
We need new democracies in the region like Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines to cooperate with us.
And we also need reforming colossal powers like China and Russia as constructive partners.
To promote democracy, free market and to enhance stability and prosperity in the region is not only Japan's and American interests. It is the historic mission of the Japan-US Alliance.
The Alliance has now a new purpose in the new century to push the back of the history that is clearly headed for stability and prosperity, for more international concert among powers, for more economic integration and finally for more transparent and democratic civil societies in the region.
Japan is no longer a small defeated nation. It needs to stand up again to do something good to the international community to which it owes today's prosperity. Japan in the 21st century should again seek respect with its own hands and sweat.
4. New Challenges and Opportunities
Now let me talk about the new challenges and opportunities.
(1) The first question to ask is whether Japan is ready to assume this historic responsibility. My answer is "yes." Japan contributed to economic development of nations of each corner of the world. It prevented spread of extremism, dictatorship, or any anti-modernity emotional backlash by improving their lives and social welfare of these nations.
Japanese market was once criticized for its exclusiveness, but it pushed hard for Tokyo Round, Uruguay Round and now al-Duha Round. It is vigorously working on FTAs with Asian and Latin American nations. It is enhancing free trade.
But Japan's efforts do not stop to the domain of economy.
Japan started to participate in Peace Keeping Operation since 1993. Our troops were in Kenya/Rwanda, Mozambique, Cambodia, Eastern Timor. They are now still on the Golan Heights.
In 1997, Japan publicly agreed to stand with the United States in the contingency situations occurring Japan ’s surrounding areas. In 1998, the Government made a law to the effect that our forces could provide logistic supports to the US forces in these circumstances. This is the first attempt of Japan to bear even partially any responsibility for the security of the region beyond its border.
After 9/11, Japan sent five naval vessels to Indian Ocean to help coalition navies. Prime Minister Koizumi made a special law to that effect. This is the first dispatch of Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces during the wartime. They are at sea even now, sustaining a substantial percentage of coalitions’ naval fuels provision there.
When the second Iraqi war broke out, Prime Minister Koizumi made another law to send the ground troops and Air forces to Iraq and its neighborhood. This is again the first expedition of Japan’s ground forces to the third country.
Japan is ready to assume more proactive role for sustaining stability and prosperity, and no longer remain aside from its due responsibilities to the world peace and prosperity.
(2) The second question is how to build a constructive relationship with rising China. Since 1990s, its spectacular economic growth has been continuously changing the strategic picture in North East Asia.
When human labor was the main sources of energy in feudal time, Asia must have been producing a substantial part of world wealth. It is because of industrialization since 19th century that gave cutting edge to Europeans and Americans to lead the world economy. It is no surprise that Asian nations, after achieving industrialization, to share bigger part of world economy, and it is now turn of China to claim its fair share.
Since China courageously got separated from the Soviets and joined the “West” in 1970s, Japan, together with the United States and Europeans, tried to introduce China into the world free market economy. Although China has different values and political regime, it has amazingly well succeeded in jumping on the rapid economic expansion path.
Some say that China will stand up against American supremacy, like Athens against Sparta, Macedonia against Persia, Germans against the Great Britain or the Soviets against Americans. Would it be true?
It is the matter of choice for China.
China shares basic interests with Japan, the United States and the other Free Nations. For example, we work together with North Korean nuclear issue in six party talks. And shared interests do not stop at any particular ones.
China shares fundamental interests with us. China is not facing or confronting the house of freedom. China is now in the house of freedom. They do not have to challenge it. They enjoy free trade, free access to foreign investment and technology, free access to industrial nations market, free usage of open and safe sea lanes, free access to constant oil flow from the Gulf region and finally they enjoy too today’s regional stability and prosperity.
Like Japan, China too is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the present strategic and economic framework.
Prosperity and stability of the region are not gifts or accidents. It is a social system sustained by deliberate and robust efforts and running sweat of responsible powers. China would and should be one of them.
If it is the case, we could build truly fruitful and constructive relationship with rising China.
(3) Taiwan straight
Now let me turn to Taiwan Strait. People say that Japanese diplomats rarely talk publicly about Taiwan. Am I giving a headline to strike for tomorrow’s newspaper? Sorry if there are reporters, the answer is "no."
My government’s position on the Taiwan Strait is that the problem should be resolved peacefully through dialogue over the Strait. The legal position was made clear in the Japan-China joint declaration at the time of normalization of our relationship in 1970s. The position is always the same and not much different from American one.
Is the present trend over the Strait encouraging? Not necessarily. On one hand good news is that economic integration advances over the Strait. But on the other, we witness new dynamisms. I would like to point to two new developments.
First is democracy in Taiwan. In 1996, Taiwan held for the first time the free elections of their president. It opened the way for the indigenous sentiments to come to the surface of Taiwanese politics. Independence became an issue of their politics for the first time. Beijing was worried. It could lead to self-determination. There were test shots of missiles near the coast of Taiwan in 1996. The United States had to send in aircraft carrier battle groups. This is one development that we witnessed.
Second is rapid modernization of PLA. DoD made clear in the witness on the Capitol Hill that China’s defense budget could be the biggest only after the United States and Russia. Modernization is very rapid. Japan’s defense white paper of this year says that China has huge arsenals of SLBM against Taiwan and that of IRBM against Japan. Enhanced capabilities of their surface ship, submarines and modern fighters are remarkable. This modernization would be natural results of economic expansion. But it should be noted that its increasingly looming shadow gives more anxiety to surrounding nations.
Thus there are good signs and bad signs. The situation over the Strait should be handled in a subtle way with fine care, because disruption of peace and stability in the region is in nobody’s interests. Everybody knows this. I believe that wisdom will prevail. World War I happened against the will of any major capitals in Europe, and we will not repeat the mistake in Europe of the last century.
(4) North Korean Nuclear Crisis
Finally, let me touch briefly upon North Korean Nuclear Crisis. This is not only a regional security issue, but also the global regime of Non-Proliferation is at stake.
The crisis that started in 1994 ended with the Agreed Framework.
We hailed the success of diplomacy. It failed and a new crisis was started over again. Now another program of uranium enrichment to make atomic bomb is seriously suspected. Used fuel rods in Yongbyon were withdrawn to extract plutonium. It would be fair to ask why this happened.
The previous agreement was not equipped with a robust inspection system. We trusted North Koreans to honor the agreement. And the previous agreement was not coupled with sanctions in case where the agreement was violated.
EU 3's negotiations with Iranians might have learnt lessons from our experience. They assert, in particular, three things to Iranians; "cessation of fuel recycle activities," "objective guarantee," and "possible sanctions after the negotiations fail."
Any diplomatic pressure is like air pressure, if there are holes, pressure is meaningless. Europeans negotiate collectively and pressure collectively. Now we have to learn from them too.
Here come six-party talks. We have created six-party talks. All the major powers in the region are involved. This is already an achievement. And we are discussing "CVID (Complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of their all the nuclear program)," with North Koreans. This is a clear sign that this time we are determined not to fail.
Six-party talks are going on. I hope that it bears fruits one day. North Koreans employ traditional salami tactics. They stop at each step and ask a reward to any smallest solution of any procedural or substantial problems. We believe that some reward could be given only after there is a decisive and verifiable progress with their full commitment.
In this connection, I wish to touch upon two points. One is that Japan would not proceed to normalization with North Korea, and thus would not render full-scale economic assistance to them, as far as security issues and humanitarian issues are comprehensively solved. By security issues, I mean not only the nuclear issue, but also missiles and other WMDs that are direct threat to Japan. By humanitarian issue, I mean in particular the abduction issue.
The second point I wish to make is that the permanent members in the Security Council are under special obligation under the Charter of the United Nations and the Charter of IAEA. The issue is not only a regional security issue that concerns Korea and Japan alone. The permanent members of the Security Council in six-party talks, namely the United States, Russia and China should remain sensitive to their special obligation to the cause of Non Proliferation and stand up for that cause. They can not remain neutral or bona fide mediators.
They are admitted to possess nuclear weapons and a permanent seat in the most powerful organ of the United Nations upon which all the members confer the responsibility of world peace and security. Privilege entails responsibility and they are responsible to resolve the North Korean Nuclear problem to deliver its international responsibility.
Thank you for your patience. |
