Asia in the Coming Years: A Japanese Perspective

Dec 17, 2008

Ichiro Fujisaki,
Ambassador of Japan to the United States

  All the people in the world think that their own region is unique. Asians are no exception.

  We believe that our situation is unique because of the following reasons:

  - Diversity: religions, races, languages, and development levels. Consequently, there is the non-existence of regional organizations like AU, OAS, or EU.

  - Nearly one-third of the world population is concentrated in two Asian countries which are now deemed emerging countries.

  - We have China and Russia in the region and the US as a neighbor. We also have a unique country like the DPRK in the region.

  Today, the world is facing unprecedented challenges. The economic crisis, climate change, proliferation of WMD, terrorism, etc. Asian countries are also struggling to cope with these issues. The above-mentioned uniqueness of the region makes the situation somewhat complicated. But through such efforts, Asian solidarity may be developed as well. I would like to highlight today, Japan’s role in such an endeavor and how we see US involvement.

Economy:

  IMF estimates that the GDP growth of all countries in 2009 will be down at least a few percentage points. Everyone points out that this economic crisis started from the US. However, economic growth up till now has also been supported by the US demand. Now that the world economy has stumbled, this is no time to do the blame game. We have to cooperate to put the economy on the right track. Some leaders in the world try to take advantage of this situation and to challenge the US leadership role or to shake the system of international finance. This is not the Japanese position.

  Japan supports the US endeavor to retain its leadership in the world economy. In the Summit of 20 countries in November, PM Aso has clearly stated that we should be making efforts to support the dollar-based currency system on which the current international economic and financial systems rely. On the basis of such philosophy, Japan extended 100 billion dollars to IMF as an emergency loan.

  Regarding trade, it was a pity that the WTO Doha round was not able to make the progress needed. As an ex-Ambassador in Geneva, this was not totally inconceivable. Under such circumstances, the most important thing is that all the responsible countries commit themselves not to introduce any new trade-restrictive measures. We also need political will not to erode the commitments already made under WTO and FTAs. In short, stand still until the time comes. Japan feels that it has a special responsibility in supporting the Asian countries in this crisis. Because, still, the Asian economy is closely related to that of Japan. Let me show you some charts and explain.

  Japan is the biggest ODA donor. As Chinese leaders say, it must be an enormous task to even feed one fourth of the world population. China’s opening of its economy three decades ago was only possible by being selective in terms of regions of development. People’s frustration from disparity in distribution and an insufficient social safety net was manageable because the whole economy was growing.

  They have to maintain this growth path. Now China is also facing drops in export, thus in GDP. Some economists estimate that China’s GDP will grow around the 7% level at best, which is a substantial decrease from the level of previous years. This is serious, because per capita, China’s GDP remains in the 2000 dollars range. It is to our advantage to support China’s economic development. All of our economies are intertwined. China’s development should be seen as an opportunity.

  Recently, our bilateral relations have been improving rapidly. This year, in May, President Hu Jintao visited Japan. It was the first visit by a Chinese President during the past 10 years. And quite recently, Premier Wen Jiabao visited Fukuoka, Japan, to attend the Trilateral Summit Meeting of Japan-China-South Korea. On June 18, political agreements on resource development in the East China Sea, which had been a long-pending issue between the two countries, were reached.

  But there are still some basic things we have to keep our eyes on. Government policy towards the yuan, military build-up, human rights, and abiding by international norms such as IPR are some of them. These are the concerns of the international community as a whole. We continue to need US leadership in this regard. The Secretary of State designate Mme. Clinton stated this January that “the US and Japan share a strong interest in ensuring that China will play a stable, prosperous, peaceful and responsible role in the region and in the broader international community.” We completely share such views.

  Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on his visit to Japan two months ago, reaffirmed with Prime Minister Aso the importance of the Strategic and Global Partnership established in 2006 between the two countries. India has been the biggest recipient of Japan’s yen loan for five years in a row. Our trade in 2007 increased by 22%, and FDI from Japan increased by more than two times. You now have seen how close Japan is to other Asian countries economically. We simply cannot let the Asian economy go down the slippery slope.

  Here Asian countries’ views vary. For example, in July at Toyako, the G8 countries sought to adopt in the UN negotiations, the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050. Indonesia and South Korea, in the subsequent Major Economies Summit Meeting, responded positively. China and India, however, advocated that developed countries should first take the lead in achieving the long-term (80-95% below 1990 in 2050) and mid-term (25-40% below 1990 in 2020) reduction. We need these developing countries’ participation. We cannot repeat Kyoto where these developing countries, as well as the US, decline to take part. Japan is ready to do more on its part than developing countries. But we have to say that we are already the most saving-oriented economy emerging in the world amongst major industrial countries. I will show you a chart. The objective must be more practical than what is now being asked. We think that we can find an ambitious but realistic solution together with the US.

  First of all, Japan pursues the ultimate abolition of nuclear arms. To this end, Japan has been initiating resolutions in UNGA for more than ten years. This goes in line with the ideal of President-elect Obama in seeking a world in which there are no nuclear weapons. We think that work towards such a goal, while of course not undermining deterrence, is what the nuclear powers should be engaged in. We would like to see the US in the CTBT as soon as possible. Let us look at Iran and North Korea. On Iran, we should continue the maximum use of the UN. Only multilateral action including Russia and China can be an effective measure against Iran. As a non-permanent member from next month, we look forward to working with others including the US on all issues including those related to Iran.

  On North Korea, the Six Party Talks process should continue to play a main role. In this respect, we are encouraged by the stance taken by the President-elect and his foreign policy team. On October 11, when the US decided to de-list the DPRK from the list of terrorist countries, the President-elect issued a statement including the following remarks: “…if North Korea refuses to permit robust verification, suspension of energy assistance, as well as re-imposition of past sanctions or new restrictions needs to be considered. The US objective remains to be the complete and verifiable elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs including enrichment of uranium. North Korea must also resolve all questions about the abduction of Japanese (and others).”

  At the last Six Party Talks, North Korea was not forthcoming. If the North Koreans are waiting for a change in the US administration, they should read this statement. The Japanese Government is looking forward to working with the new administration. We are encouraged by the remarks of the President-elect stating that the US must dramatically improve coordination with allies like Japan and South Korea.

  Japan has steadfastly participated in the fight against terrorism. Japan has always supported OEF by refueling the ships engaged in this operation in the Indian Ocean. On the12th of this month, the Japanese Diet decided to extend its activity until January 2010. We will be ready to discuss Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and Middle East peace-related issues with the US. Japan, as a major dependant on Middle East oil, has critical interest in these issues. It is my belief that these issues should not be seen not in a piecemeal manner. They should be seen and treated from a regional point of view in the mid-term context. We will continue to do our best, especially in the field of the reconstruction of war-torn countries. Japan has also been assisting the capacity-building of Southeast Asian countries in combating terrorism and piracy. Coast Guard patrol ships were provided to Indonesia and seminars to train law enforcement experts in these countries are some of the examples.

  Ladies and gentlemen, Former German Chancellor Schmitt once said that Japan does not seem to have too many genuine friends in Asia. With all my respect to this great leader, I doubt the validity of such a comment. The Japanese have the tendency to seek after critical comments from outside. Sorry to Mr. Schmitt, but we do have many friends. Let us look at the charts again.

  According to an opinion poll on Japan in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) in May 2008, more than 90% of the respondents in each country view their relationship with Japan as “friendly” or “somewhat friendly.” This is exemplified by the fact that we have returned to UNSC 10 times in the last 30 years. This is more than any other country in the world. Germany 4 times, India 6 times…. In the last election, which took place two months ago, we won by 158 votes to Iran’s 32 votes.

  Some may say, as the Chancellor states, that Japan has not squarely faced with its history issue. This is not true. Japan has directly faced the past with regard to World War II and has clearly expressed feelings of remorse and apology and its resolve to ensure that such an unfortunate history will never be repeated, as shown in the statement by the then Prime Minister on August 15, 1995. We however cannot be complacent about the situation in Asia. On top of the above-mentioned efforts in coping with challenges, I would like to mention three points. First, it is important to further solidify regional cooperation. In Asia, multi-layered frameworks of cooperation have been steadily developed. It has accelerated since the Asian Financial Crisis 11 years ago. It is essential that we expand and deepen the regional cooperation in Asia because.

  - Asian countries are becoming more interdependent; and

  - Issues which have to be tackled jointly, such as finance, environment, infectious disease and organized crimes, are increasing.

  In the framework of ASEAN +3, which is the main vehicle for regional cooperation, leaders have met every year since 1997. Since 2005, ASEAN +3 has enlarged meetings of the East Asia Summit to expand the East Asian Community to include India, Australia, and New Zealand. After NAFTA was concluded in 1994, Japan belatedly initiated negotiation for an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Singapore and concluded it in 2002.

  As of today, 5 other bilateral EPAs have been signed between Japan and individual ASEAN countries: Malaysia (2005), the Philippines (2006), Thailand (2007), Indonesia (2007), and Brunei (2007). On top of these, Japan completed the negotiations on a Japan-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, EPA with 10 ASEAN countries collectively in April this year. Also, Japan reached agreements on major elements with Vietnam and is now under negotiation with India, South Korea, and Australia. Japan’s economic relationship with ASEAN is expected to be further invigorated under these agreements.

  Japan, China, and ROK trilateral relations are enhancing as well. Last weekend, a Trilateral Summit meeting among the three countries was held in Fukuoka, Japan. This was the first such summit to be convened independently. They talked about the international financial crisis, cooperation on disaster prevention, global issues such as environmental protection and non-proliferation, and of course, North Korea, among others. To better address the financial crisis in the region, the three countries agreed to fortify the Chiang Mai Initiative which is a cooperative currency swapping arrangement. Namely, the maximum amount Japan can provide from its reserve as a currency swap to Korea was increased from USD 13 billion to 30 billion and as for China to Korea, from USD 4 billion to 30 billion. The heads of the three countries agreed to hold this summit meeting once a year from now on and has set the next time and venue as China in 2009.

  Here, I would like to stress one important thing. Dialogues may increase. EPAs or FTAs may flourish. However, Japan has no intention of excluding the US from any institution building in the Asia Pacific region. Pan Asia institutions without the US are not to our interest in the foreseeable future. We need the US to be engaged in Asia. In this regard, a more strategic use of APEC must be sought. Japan and the US, as successive hosts of APEC in 2010 and 2011, can and should cooperate to further invigorate this regional mechanism.

  Secondly, it is vital to keep the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. There is a silent majority voice supporting the US presence. Why silent? Because they are happy with the situation. They do not want to offend others by coming out to support the US presence or to be asked to bear some costs. In this regard, I would like to touch upon the famous “oxygen theory” of Professor Nye of Harvard. The essence of which is contending that the US presence in the Asia-Pacific is as indispensable as oxygen. This is partly right. It is indispensable.

  We do need the presence of US forces, bearing in mind that instability and uncertainty persist in Asia: North Korea’s development of WMD and delivery means, China’s massive military buildup and modernization, and Russia’s resurgence. U.S. forces in this region have been indispensable in providing deterrence against possible adversaries and assurance to its allies. However, oxygen does not smell nor give sound. The very essence of oxygen is that you benefit from it but you do not feel it. The military cannot be so.

  Providing the use of bases by Japan is what makes the security arrangements reciprocal. The US needs bases in Japan because they are the only significant Navy, Marine and Air Force bases between Guam and Diego Garcia. However, we have to always be sensitive to the feelings of local communities. This is exactly what both the Japanese government and the US government are working on everyday. We should continue to work along the Japan-U.S. Roadmap for Realignment Implementation agreed to in 2006.

  The role expected of the US is to give assurances and predictability. Assurances that democracy and human rights, including freedom of speech, are respected and that use of force is not allowed. Japan shares the same values as the US in this regard. Although our ways of demarche may sometimes differ, Japan would like to work with the US to encourage the prevailing of such values.

We would like the US to understand that, in reality, many of us in Asia are comfortable with the status quo. They do not want to see one or two countries in the region alter strategic balances in the region. We would like the US to be there as a stabilizer. Yes, what we may be expecting is for the US to play an “anchor” role. Firm and steady. Is this asking too much?

  Thirdly, it is necessary to enhance human contacts to foster trust relations and solidarity in the region. As one example, last year, Japan announced a plan to invite about 6,000 young people to Japan, mainly from EAS member states (ASEAN, Australia, China, India, New Zealand, the ROK), every year for five years.

  Ladies and Gentlemen,

  We are now just at the watershed in Asia. A turbulent economy, the military build-up of China, the DPRK, South West Asia in a hot situation, etc. We continue to need US engagement. Japan is ready to work with you.

  I thank you.

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