Embassy of Japan in the United States of America
在米国日本国大使館

Japan: Changes and Continuities

October 2. 2009
Ichiro Fujisaki

Some Japanese were grumbling that Japan　was not getting enough attention in world media.
Such a period is over.
Now, Japan is getting more attention than ever.
This, of course, is because of the new government which came into power for the first time and with many new policies.
Japan has entered a very new stage in its history.
 
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ELECTION

• On August 30, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won a landslide victory.
• Since its establishment in 1955, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has always governed Japan except for a very short period back in 1993. Back then, however, the LDP still remained the largest party while the majority was formed by a coalition composed of 8 smaller parties.
• With the recent election, out of the lower house’s 480 seats, the LDP seats decreased from 300 to 119, while the DPJ increased their seats from 115 to 308. The two parties in fact switched their positions.
• On September 9, the DPJ, the Socialist Democratic Party, and the People’s New Party announced the Agreement of the Three Party Coalition Government. There are 242 seats total in the upper house, and the DPJ currently has 109 seats. The coalition of three parties will have the majority in the upper house as well.
• The election result thus brought a sea change in Japanese politics.
• According to various media reports, there are two reasons for this election result.
• First, globalism and the reforms adopted to meet it have brought about unfavorable effects for long-time supporters of the LDP, such as elderly people, farmers, small and medium industries, and people living outside of big cities. The financial crisis that started last year further aggravated the situation and increased people’s discontent.
• Second, Japanese people had been seeking “change” after the same party had ruled for more than 50 years. Out of the 308 elected in the DPJ, about 54% are under 49.

JAPAN’S FOREIGN POLICY: AS OUTLINED BY PM HATOYAMA AND FOREIGN MINISTER OKADA THIS PAST WEEK

• The new cabinet was formed on the 16th of September.
• A golden opportunity appeared one week after.
• UNGA.
• This year, it was a very special UN week.
• First, it was back to back with the G20 Summit.
• Second, President Obama chaired the UN Security Council for the first time. This meeting focused on nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament.
• Third, there was also the UN Summit on Climate Change.
• Thus, about 180 heads of state gathered in NY.
• A historical turn out.
• The new Prime Minister was able to convey his government’s views to the international community through speeches at these important meetings.
• He was also able to meet important counterparts.
• He had bilateral meetings with the leaders of the United States, China, Great Britain, Russia, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. 
• Foreign Minister Okada also had bilateral meetings with his counterparts from the United States, EU, Singapore, Iran, Australia, Great Britain, Pakistan, Brazil, Vietnam, and Latin American countries. He also attended the G8 Foreign Minister’s meeting　and the Senior Officials’ Meeting of Trilateral Strategic Dialogue among Japan, the US, and Australia.
• Through these speeches and meetings, the new government’s policies became clearer.
• The new Prime Minister said that Japan would like to play the role of a “bridge” in major issues such as

        - Responding to the global economic crisis
        - Climate change issues
        - Nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation
        - Peacebuilding, development and poverty
        - East Asian community

•   
• Let me address some of these issues.
• But let me begin from Japan-US relations.

JAPAN-US RELATIONSHIP

• Prime Minister Hatoyama told President Obama in their bilateral meeting that he came all the way to thank Mr. Obama and the American people because the courage shown by the American people last year, which brought about change in the US, has crossed the Pacific Ocean and made the change in Japan happen.
• The President said that the two leaders share a similarity because both of them won a victory that not many people expected.
• I had the privilege to sit in the meeting and can report to you that it was a very warm and cordial meeting.
• The two leaders seemed quite comfortable with each other. They were soon on a first name basis.
• PM Hatoyama told President Obama about eating pancakes from　the President’s favorite place, Pamela’s, in Pittsburg as his breakfast, and President Obama jokingly said that he was very envious in his G20 closing press conference.
• I have known Mr. Hatoyama from our Stanford years some 40 years ago.
• He was majoring in engineering and I was a political science student, but in the end, as you can see, it was he who got the top political job.
• He is studious, sincere, and reserved but a very strong-willed person.
• Maybe the two leaders saw something in common in each other.
• Prime Minister Hatoyama stated to President Obama that his government would continue to view the Japan-US alliance as the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign policy.
• The two leaders agreed to further strengthen the alliance.
• This was not only a diplomatic gesture.
• The reasons for the continuation of these pivotal relations with the US are as follows.

• Japan and the US share basic values of democracy, human rights, and freedom of speech.
• The US remains the most popular country in Japan. More than 70% of Japanese think the US is a credible partner. Vice-versa is true. Politics will reflect people’s views.
• Japan will continue to be dependent on the US for its deterrence. North Korea poses a threat to Japan. Japan and the US are both concerned about China’s military build-up.
• As the No. 1 and No. 2 economies, we have a common interest in managing the world economy.

Come to think of it, there are not too many partnerships like what we have.
Countries who share common values, interdependent economies, security alliance, and affection for each other.
Any new government has to reflect this reality.

• The new government is trying to review US bases or US Forces alignment in Japan.
• Foreign Minister Okada emphasized in his first meeting with Secretary Clinton that the objective of such review was to establish an even closer relationship with the US so that it will be maintained for many years to come in the future.

ASIA POLICIES

• In his UNGA speech, Prime Minister Hatoyama expressed his view of working towards an East Asian community.
• There could be some concerns here that Japan is advocating a regional framework without the US.
• To this, three points can be made.
• First, it is a long term objective. A political framework such as the EU is not foreseen while the political structures of countries in Asia remain as diversified as today.
• Second, there already exists NAFTA in North America and EU in Europe. Open regionalism is nothing new.
• Third, there is no intention to exclude the US. It is not in our best interest. The Prime Minister is saying that the East Asian community should eventually develop into the Asia-Pacific community.
• Prime Minister and President Hu Jintao of China agreed to enhance the existing mutually beneficial strategic partnership.
• This does not mean that the new government is shifting its weight onto China at the expense of Japan-US relations.
• Japan-US relations as mentioned above will continue to be the very basis.
• Japan-US relations and Japan-China relations are very different in their nature and do not constitute a zero-sum game.
• On North Korea, the new leader of Japan took an almost identical approach as his predecessors.
• Japan will never allow North Korea to acquire a status with nuclear weapons. We believe that nuclear weapons, missile, and abduction issues should be resolved in a comprehensive manner.
• We believe that the 6 parties talk is the right framework to negotiate with the DPRK but support US-DPRK talks because they will be within the said framework.
• Japan on its part is ready to take a positive stance towards the DPRK if and when the DPRK takes concrete steps to this end. 

AFGHANISTAN

• Japan has been the third biggest contributor to the Afghanistan reconstruction effort, next only to the US and UK. For example, Japan has offered assistance to Afghanistan in many areas such as counter-narcotics and border control, police assistance, food and humanitarian assistance, and school construction.
• Japan has been refueling naval vessels engaged in Operation Enduring Freedom in the Indian Ocean since 2001.
• The new government is saying it will not automatically extend this refueling operation.
• Prime Minister said to President Obama that Japan would like to identify what cooperation would be most needed by the people of Afghanistan and where Japan can best contribute. The Prime Minister has suggested in the summit meeting that Japan will view the issue of Afghanistan as its own issue and play an active role in supporting reconstruction efforts through civil and agricultural contribution in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Also, FM Okada mentioned in the G8 FM meeting that Japan is seriously considering assistance in various areas such as food production, job creation, and vocational training for ex-Taliban soldiers.
• We will try to come up with a package sooner than later.

NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION

• President Obama’s Prague speech had a huge impact in Japan.
• It coincided with Japan’s long standing effort for the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons.
• Prime Minister Hatoyama told President Obama that the new Japanese government will be looking forward to working with the US regarding nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation.
• At the UN Security Council Summit on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Nuclear Disarmament, the Japanese Prime Minister stressed that Japan will continue to adhere to its 3 non-nuclear principles (not to possess, not to produce, and not to introduce) and furthermore stressed the following points amongst others.
• Japan strongly encourages the early enforcement of the CTBT and the immediate commencement of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). 
• Japan believes it is necessary to reduce the risk of proliferation and to adhere to the highest standard in all areas of nuclear safeguards, security, and safety, when using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
• Regarding Iran’s nuclear problem, it has been Japan’s position that we cannot let Iran become a country with nuclear weapons.
• Foreign Minister Okada had serious exchanges with Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki in New York. Mr. Okada urged Iran to resume dialogues with the international community on this matter.
• （He also discussed this matter in the G8 Foreign Minister’s meeting and said that if Iran does not address the concerns of the international community, tougher responses to Iran have to be considered.）（注：この部分はＧ８外相会合当時としては正しいものの、新たに秘密核実験施設が明らかになる前のラインであるため、現在言い振りを確認中。）

CLIMATE CHANGE

• This is an area where the new government has significantly changed Japan’s position.
• In June, then Prime Minister Aso announced a 15% cut from the 2005 level as a mid-term target for 2020. This is equivalent to an 8% cut from the 1990 level.
• As you all know, the current US House bill is a 17% cut from the 2005 level and similar to the previous Japanese proposal.
• Prime Minister Hatoyama announced that Japan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% from the 1990 level by 2020. This commitment is based on the premise of an agreement on a fair and effective international framework and ambitious targets by all the major countries.
• He called for developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Japan on its part is prepared to provide more financial and technical assistance than in the past to developing countries, in accordance with the progress of international negotiations.
• This bold initiative astonished people around the world but also won praise.
• It is true that there are mixed feelings in Japan, though he expressed his resolution to mobilize all available policy tools to deliver on this initiative. Some business leaders think this is too difficult to attain.
• Others think Japan has overcome oil shocks and realized an energy efficient economy. As such, this new target should provide opportunity as well as challenge.
• As agreed upon at the Japan-US summit meeting held last Wednesday, this is one of the areas in which the two governments can enhance their cooperation.
• According to the IEA, the shares of Japan and the US in the world’s public R&D investment in the field of energy are respectively 41% and 30%.
• Therefore, a 70% share by the two countries together.
• Japan and the US thus have a special responsibility to closely cooperate for the success of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 15) which will seek agreement on the post-Kyoto framework in Copenhagen in December.

ECONOMIC POLICIES

• Prime Minister stated that globalization includes aspects of both light and shadow. He believes that expanding the light while controlling the shadow is required.
• Prime Minister Hatoyama stated that the role of IMF is becoming more important for the recovery of the global economy. He also emphasized the importance of the G20 and G8 for international economic cooperation.
• The new government believes that the revival of Japan’s economy is its prime objective.
• Regarding fiscal policy, the new administration plans to start a new monthly allowance of about 260 dollars per child, free public high school education, elimination of highway tolls, and so on. 
• The costs of these policies, which will be 7.1 trillion yen (equivalent to 79 billion dollars) in FY2010, will be financed by eradicating wasteful spending which exists in the current national budget of 207 trillion yen.
• In order to pinpoint specific areas of wasteful spending, the government has started a scrutiny of the contents of the FY2009 budget. This will be completed by October 2. Based on the results, the government will terminate the identified ineffective projects.

HEALTH CARE REFORM

• American people are ardently discussing health care reform today.  President Obama made a speech in the Joint Congressional Session on September 9, and I was also there to listen to his speech. 
• In this national health care debate, many comparisons are made with other countries’ health care systems, and Japan is one of them as we have seen by such coverage of the Japanese system in the Washington Post on September 7. We have a universal health insurance system in Japan. As mentioned in the article, it amounts to 8% of GDP, about one half of that of the US.
• However, facing a rapidly aging society, our national health expenditure is outpacing the growth of national income; we are tackling this issue to create a sustainable system even in an aging society.
• The LDP government introduced measures to request some cost-sharing with elderly people over 75 years of age. As this was so unpopular, the DPJ has proposed abolishing it in its Manifesto.

CONCLUSION

• In this very new situation, it will take time for Japan and the US to discuss various issues.  This has started just one week after the new cabinet was formed through meetings between Prime Minister Hatoyama and President Obama and between Foreign Minister Okada and Secretary Clinton. 
• Through these exchanges, I am convinced that the leaders have started to establish close and trustful counterpart relations. That is the beginning of everything to follow.
• It will not be honest if I say things will all be the same.
• No, it will not be so.
• There will be changes.
• But I am convinced that the two governments can overcome the problems to arise.
• Because both Japan and the US know that it is in their own interest to manage the situation smoothly.
• I have always believed that the guiding principles for any important bilateral relations are the three NO’s. No surprises; No over-politicizing; and No taking for granted. I think these principles are more important than ever today.